What if a megacap restates three years of revenue?
A top-10 firm restating three years of revenue and wiping $400B is an idiosyncratic credibility shock that widens credit and drags financials — short the name and its lenders, with contained broad spillover unless it is a systemic counterparty. The analogue is Wirecard (Jun-2020): a megacap accounting fraud that went to zero with limited market-wide damage, or Enron for the audit-trust channel. Skeptical note: passive holders are forced sellers, so the gap overshoots; the contagion is to auditors and peer governance discounts, not the whole tape.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A top-10 company restates three years of revenue after a whistleblower exposes channel-stuffing, wiping $400B in market cap. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.