What if Melt-up wealth effect supercharges discretionary spending?
Surging equity and crypto portfolios lift household wealth, and the positive wealth effect boosts spending on travel, autos, and luxury. The consumption tailwind reinforces growth and risk appetite.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Surging equity and crypto portfolios lift household wealth, and the positive wealth effect boosts spending on travel, autos, and luxury. The consumption tailwind reinforces growth and risk appetite. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Bitcoin ▲ · Consumer spending ▲ · Growth surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.