What if Mexico energy reform reopening lures private capital?
A pragmatic opening of Mexico's power and gas sector to private investment eases supply bottlenecks for nearshoring and supports the peso.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A pragmatic opening of Mexico's power and gas sector to private investment eases supply bottlenecks for nearshoring and supports the peso. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Global growth ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.18–+0.04% · other way -1.72% (n=8) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.94–+4.73% · other way -1.67% (n=5) |
| 3 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.68–+0.49% · other way -3.24% (n=8) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -6.21–+14.21% · other way +4.03% (n=8) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.04–+0.07% · other way +0.32% (n=12) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.12–+1.58% · other way -4.66% (n=8) |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.02–+0.75% · other way -0.5% (n=9) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.65–+2.13% · other way -1.39% (n=6) |
| 10 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.11–+0.35% · other way -5.76% (n=8) |
| 11 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.03–+0.26% · other way -0.83% (n=8) |
| 12 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.4% hist -3.15–+0.86% · other way +5.57% (n=9) |
| 13 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.46–+5.74% · other way -0.61% (n=8) |
| 14 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.37–+1.41% · other way +1.57% (n=8) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.4% | 68% | 40 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.6% | 61% | 40 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 64% | 39 | 0.21 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -5.5% | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 39 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 60% | 39 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 39 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.2% | 57% | 39 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -2.4% | 59% | 40 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 39 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +2bp | 59% | 40 | 0.14 | · |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.7% | 57% | 39 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 39 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.6% | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |