What if Pemex turnaround eases Mexican sovereign-risk overhang?
A credible Pemex restructuring and capital plan reduce the state oil firm's drag on Mexico's finances, tightening sovereign spreads and aiding the peso.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A credible Pemex restructuring and capital plan reduce the state oil firm's drag on Mexico's finances, tightening sovereign spreads and aiding the peso. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · Credit spreads ▼ · Oil supply risk ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -6.36–+15.13% · other way +4.03% (n=8) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -2.15–+5.02% · other way -1.67% (n=5) |
| 3 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.66–+0.5% · other way -3.24% (n=8) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.09–+1.74% · other way -4.66% (n=8) |
| 5 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.04–+0.36% · other way -5.76% (n=8) |
| 6 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.97–+0.82% · other way +5.57% (n=9) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.07–+0.76% · other way -0.5% (n=9) |
| 8 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.39–+0.28% · other way -0.09% (n=8) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.02–+0.25% · other way -0.83% (n=8) |
| 11 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.68–+1.97% · other way -1.39% (n=6) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.57–+5.77% · other way -0.61% (n=8) |
| 13 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.94–+0.19% · other way -1.72% (n=8) |
| 14 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.11–+0.25% · other way +1.16% (n=8) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.3% · 5d +0.5% | 70% | 40 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.5% | 63% | 40 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 66% | 39 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 61% | 39 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -5.8% | 60% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.2% | 59% | 39 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +1.9% · 5d +0.2% | 58% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.5% | 58% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +5bp · 5d +2bp | 58% | 40 | 0.12 | · |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.6% | 56% | 39 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -1.0% | 56% | 39 | 0.10 | · |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 56% | 40 | 0.09 | · |