What if Mexico's Morena wins a two-thirds supermajority?
Morena clinching a two-thirds supermajority enables unchecked constitutional rewrites — peso sells off and Mexican local bonds cheapen on rule-of-law erosion; short MXN and Mexbol, watch nearshoring-exposed names. The direct rhyme is June-2024's Sheinbaum-supermajority scare, when the peso gapped ~8% on judicial-reform fear. Transmission: the US is Mexico's dominant trade/FDI partner, so institutional risk threatens the nearshoring bid; the broad VIX cascade overstates US-equity spillover.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Morena sweeps the June 2027 midterms to a two-thirds supermajority, enabling unchecked constitutional rewrites; peso sells off on rule-of-law concerns. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · EM currencies ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.