What if Mexico-US energy integration draws private power capital?
Pragmatic reopening of Mexico's power sector to private and US investment expands clean generation for nearshoring factories, supporting growth and the peso.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Pragmatic reopening of Mexico's power sector to private and US investment expands clean generation for nearshoring factories, supporting growth and the peso. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Global growth ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.18–+0.04% · other way -1.72% (n=8) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.95–+4.72% · other way -1.67% (n=5) |
| 3 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.68–+0.49% · other way -3.24% (n=8) |
| 4 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.04–+0.07% · other way +0.32% (n=12) |
| 5 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.14–+0.4% · other way -5.76% (n=8) |
| 6 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.12–+1.58% · other way -4.66% (n=8) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -6.25–+14.15% · other way +4.03% (n=8) |
| 9 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.03–+0.72% · other way -0.5% (n=9) |
| 10 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.01–+0.29% · other way -0.83% (n=8) |
| 11 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.68–+2.09% · other way -1.39% (n=6) |
| 12 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.12–+0.88% · other way +5.57% (n=9) |
| 13 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.49–+5.71% · other way -0.61% (n=8) |
| 14 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.09–+0.57% · other way +0.8% (n=8) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.4% | 68% | 40 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.6% | 61% | 40 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 64% | 39 | 0.21 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -5.5% | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 60% | 39 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.2% | 57% | 39 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +2bp | 59% | 40 | 0.14 | · |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.7% | 57% | 39 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 39 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.6% | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -1.0% | 55% | 39 | 0.08 | · |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -4.4% ↺ fades | 54% | 36 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |