What if Mexico water crisis throttles northern factory output?
Severe drought in northern Mexico forces water rationing for industry, disrupting nearshoring plants and tempering manufacturing growth.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Severe drought in northern Mexico forces water rationing for industry, disrupting nearshoring plants and tempering manufacturing growth. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -5.72–+2.39% · other way +8.32% (n=11) |
| 2 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.49–+1.4% · other way -0.55% (n=11) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -7.09–+6.64% · other way -8.23% (n=8) |
| 4 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.76–+1.78% · other way +0.16% (n=11) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.23–+1.44% · other way +17.3% (n=11) |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -7.07–+6.89% · other way +4.03% (n=8) |
| 8 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.7–+0.49% · other way -0.17% (n=10) |
| 9 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.45–+0.34% · other way +1.81% (n=11) |
| 10 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.28–+0.79% · other way +0.02% (n=10) |
| 11 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.9–+2.06% · other way -0.19% (n=11) |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.27–+0.14% · other way +2.75% (n=11) |
| 13 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.04–+4.05% · other way +8.61% (n=8) |
| 14 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.49–+0.48% · other way +2.57% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 19 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +11.7% · 5d +2.5% | 77% | 13 | 0.44 | · |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d -1.5% | 75% | 12 | 0.43 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -5.3% · 5d -1.8% | 75% | 12 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 67% | 12 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -4.4% | 58% | 12 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 12 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 58% | 12 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 55% | 14 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -3bp · 5d -1bp | 51% | 19 | 0.02 | · |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +7.2% · 5d -4.3% ↺ fades | 50% | 4 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.2% | 42% | 12 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +7.5% · 5d -2.4% ↺ fades | 40% | 5 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.8% | 50% | 12 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.1% | 33% | 12 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |