What if Mexico water scarcity throttles northern factory expansion?
Acute water shortages in Mexico's industrial north constrain new factory build-out, slowing the nearshoring boom and capping peso strength.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Acute water shortages in Mexico's industrial north constrain new factory build-out, slowing the nearshoring boom and capping peso strength. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.81–+0.43% · other way -0.17% (n=10) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -7.09–+6.64% · other way -8.23% (n=8) |
| 3 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.37–+0.74% · other way +0.02% (n=10) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.23–+1.44% · other way +17.3% (n=11) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -7.07–+6.89% · other way +4.03% (n=8) |
| 7 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.58–+1.34% · other way -0.55% (n=11) |
| 8 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -5.59–+2.46% · other way +8.32% (n=11) |
| 9 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.45–+0.34% · other way +1.81% (n=11) |
| 10 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.81–+1.71% · other way +0.16% (n=11) |
| 11 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.16–-0.07% · other way -0.17% (n=10) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.04–+4.05% · other way +8.61% (n=8) |
| 13 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.49–+0.48% · other way +2.57% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 19 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +11.7% · 5d +2.5% | 77% | 13 | 0.44 | · |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -5.3% · 5d -1.8% | 75% | 12 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 67% | 12 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -4.4% | 58% | 12 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 58% | 12 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 58% | 12 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 55% | 14 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -3bp · 5d -1bp | 51% | 19 | 0.02 | · |
| TRY TRY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.8% | 50% | 12 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +7.2% · 5d -4.3% ↺ fades | 50% | 4 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.1% | 33% | 12 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.2% | 42% | 12 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +7.5% · 5d -2.4% ↺ fades | 40% | 5 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +4.5% · 5d +0.4% | 43% | 7 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |