What if Microsoft breaches its EU deal to unbundle Teams?
A Teams-unbundling breach with turnover-based penalties is a minor MSFT compliance cost, the smallest-tier event here — hence the muted, mixed tape. Rhymes with the original 2023 Teams-Office unbundling, which Microsoft absorbed with no visible financial dent. Skeptical: 5%-of-daily-turnover sounds large but applies narrowly and briefly; the single Solana -0.3% line confirms this is essentially a non-event for broad risk.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Monitoring trustee finds Microsoft violating its binding Teams interoperability commitments; Commission imposes periodic penalties up to 5% of daily turnover. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.