What if Mild winter and full storage sink TTF to EUR20?
A warm winter leaves EU gas storage brimming into spring, collapsing Dutch TTF toward EUR20/MWh, easing European headline inflation and lifting energy-intensive industrials.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A warm winter leaves EU gas storage brimming into spring, collapsing Dutch TTF toward EUR20/MWh, easing European headline inflation and lifting energy-intensive industrials. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -3.14–+1.43% · other way +1.98% (n=6) |
| 2 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 3 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.13–+0.31% · other way +3.31% (n=7) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -4.38–+14.33% · other way -1.17% (n=10) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.37–+0.31% · other way +0.17% (n=11) |
| 6 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.22–+0.32% · other way -0.64% (n=10) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.37–+0.62% · other way -5.06% (n=10) |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.91–+0.31% · other way +0.84% (n=10) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.97–+2.24% · other way +1.14% (n=9) |
| 10 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -2bp hist -2.99–+14.07% · other way -14.0% (n=12) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.24–+2.14% · other way -2.26% (n=12) |
| 12 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -3.37–+11.1% · other way +12.65% (n=5) |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.15–+0.19% · other way +0.05% (n=10) |
| 14 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -2bp hist -4.01–+17.03% · other way -17.4% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.7% · 5d +0.8% | 74% | 40 | 0.45 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +12bp · 5d +4bp | 72% | 40 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +15bp · 5d +5bp | 70% | 40 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 71% | 38 | 0.30 | · |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.0% | 68% | 39 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +10.0% · 5d +1.4% | 62% | 38 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +12.8% · 5d -2.8% ↺ fades | 61% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.0% | 59% | 39 | 0.16 | · |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -7.7% | 60% | 38 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -3.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 40 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.9% | 59% | 40 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -3.3% ↺ fades | 48% | 38 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.4% | 50% | 38 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +2.1% · 5d -3.1% ↺ fades | 50% | 38 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |