What if Winter grid blitz spikes TTF to EUR90?
A coordinated Russian strike campaign on Ukrainian power and a cold snap drain EU storage faster than expected, driving Dutch TTF gas toward EUR90/MWh and lifting European utilities' input costs.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A coordinated Russian strike campaign on Ukrainian power and a cold snap drain EU storage faster than expected, driving Dutch TTF gas toward EUR90/MWh and lifting European utilities' input costs. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +5.2% hist +1.63–+3.42% · other way -10.0% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.1% hist -1.36–-0.57% · other way -0.07% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.02–-0.44% · other way -0.01% (n=12) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.82–+0.14% · other way +1.28% (n=12) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% hist -2.21–+6.58% · other way -1.19% (n=11) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -2.38–+3.68% · other way +21.38% (n=12) |
| 7 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.65–-0.37% · other way -0.53% (n=12) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.66–+0.29% · other way +5.94% (n=11) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.12–+0.14% · other way +11.14% (n=11) |
| 11 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -3.4–+0.7% · other way -0.58% (n=12) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.75–-0.03% · other way +1.47% (n=12) |
| 13 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.77–+0.03% · other way +0.26% (n=12) |
| 14 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -3.4–+0.44% · other way -1.38% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +10.0% · 5d +3.1% | 71% | 20 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -1.2% | 71% | 36 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.9% | 66% | 35 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +2.1% · 5d +0.0% | 66% | 36 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +6bp | 63% | 40 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -5.3% | 64% | 35 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +6.2% · 5d -4.7% ↺ fades | 66% | 21 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -2.5% | 62% | 35 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.4% | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.4% | 62% | 35 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -2.6% | 62% | 35 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 61% | 35 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +13bp · 5d +5bp | 58% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 59% | 35 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |