What if Milei stumbles in 2027 and dollarization stalls?
La Libertad Avanza underperforming strands incomplete dollarization — Argentine bonds and the peso gap lower on reform-reversal and re-default fear; short ARG hard-currency debt and the parallel peso. Rhymes with the 2019 PASO shock, when Argentine bonds and the Merval collapsed ~50% intraday on a Peronist-return scare. Forward angle: a partial-dollarization limbo is messier than 2019's clean policy-reversal trade, raising redenomination ambiguity.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. La Libertad Avanza underperforms the October 2027 vote, stranding the still-incomplete dollarization push; peso and bonds gap lower on reform-reversal fears. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.