What if Miner debt-refinancing wall forces distressed equity raises?
A cluster of miner debt maturities meets weak hashprice, forcing dilutive equity raises and asset sales that pressure the sector and add spot supply.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A cluster of miner debt maturities meets weak hashprice, forcing dilutive equity raises and asset sales that pressure the sector and add spot supply. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Bitcoin ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Crypto confidence ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.