What if a major economy adopts Modern Monetary Theory outright?
An explicit MMT framework funding deficits via the central bank is the maximal debasement trade — short the currency, long gold and BTC, with the long end selling hard on un-anchored inflation expectations. Rhymes with Weimar and, more recently, Turkey's 2021 unorthodox rate-cutting that sent the lira to record lows and gold/crypto bid locally. The transmission is currency confidence; the forward, novel angle is that an MMT adoption in a reserve-currency economy has no modern precedent — the gold/BTC response could dwarf the EM analogues the cascade leans on.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A major economy adopts an explicit MMT framework, funding deficits directly via the central bank. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Fed policy path ▼ · Inflation expectations ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.