What if Monsoon failure spikes India food inflation and stalls cuts?
A deficient monsoon drives vegetable and cereal prices sharply higher, pushing CPI above the RBI's tolerance band; the central bank holds rates, hurting rate-sensitive equities and the bond rally.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A deficient monsoon drives vegetable and cereal prices sharply higher, pushing CPI above the RBI's tolerance band; the central bank holds rates, hurting rate-sensitive equities and the bond rally. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Consumer spending ▼ · Food inflation ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.83–+0.45% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.3–-0.14% · other way -0.56% (n=12) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.11–+5.49% · other way +31.9% (n=12) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -3.39–+1.03% · other way +4.46% (n=12) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.29–+0.07% · other way -0.47% (n=12) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.34–+3.84% · other way -1.26% (n=12) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.59–+0.9% · other way +7.54% (n=12) |
| 9 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.53–+1.38% · other way -0.47% (n=12) |
| 10 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -1.83–+8.11% · other way +5.4% (n=12) |
| 11 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.23–+0.27% · other way +0.47% (n=12) |
| 12 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -1.21–+5.63% · other way +6.3% (n=12) |
| 13 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.19–-0.01% · other way -0.1% (n=12) |
| 14 | 2y Treasury yield DGS2 | Rate | ▲ +1bp model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +2bp | 58% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -4.3% | 60% | 36 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.5% · 5d +6.3% | 57% | 36 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -6.4% | 58% | 35 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 57% | 36 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d +0.5% ↺ fades | 55% | 36 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +2bp | 54% | 40 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -2.3% ↺ fades | 53% | 36 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 53% | 36 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 45% | 36 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +5.7% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 50% | 36 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 50% | 36 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.0% · 5d +0.2% | 46% | 40 | 0.00 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.3% | 45% | 36 | 0.00 | · |