What if China's mortgage boycott flares up again?
A second mortgage-boycott wave attacks bank asset quality directly, so the actionable read is China HY property credit and KWEB/Alibaba lower, dragging copper and AUD as the demand proxy. The crypto/Nasdaq legs in the cascade are spurious co-movement — this is a domestic balance-sheet shock, not a global liquidity event. Closest analogue is the summer-2022 boycott plus Kaisa contagion, where developer dollar bonds repriced violently but spillover stayed regional. Forward: weaker household balance sheets than 2022 mean less policy room to socialize losses.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A fresh nationwide wave of homebuyers halts mortgage payments on stalled pre-sold units, threatening bank asset quality. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.