What if a deadlier mpox strain outruns the vaccine supply?
Direct chain: a deadlier clade-I mpox with vaccine shortfall triggers a renewed PHEIC — a contained mobility/risk-off ripple (crude soft, gold bid, Bavarian Nordic-type vaccine names spike). Rhymes with the 2022 mpox PHEIC, which barely dented broad risk assets but spiked vaccine stocks. Mpox spreads by close contact, not aerosol, so the macro/oil cascade here is likely overstated — the real trade is long the vaccine supplier, not short crude; roots are at the high end but tolerable.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A more transmissible, higher-fatality clade I mpox lineage outpaces vaccine supply, triggering renewed PHEIC, stockpile exhaustion, and overwhelmed clinics across Europe and North America. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Pandemic shock ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.