What if a deadlier mpox strain outruns the vaccine supply?
Direct chain: a deadlier clade-I mpox with vaccine shortfall triggers a renewed PHEIC — a contained mobility/risk-off ripple (crude soft, gold bid, Bavarian Nordic-type vaccine names spike). Rhymes with the 2022 mpox PHEIC, which barely dented broad risk assets but spiked vaccine stocks. Mpox spreads by close contact, not aerosol, so the macro/oil cascade here is likely overstated — the real trade is long the vaccine supplier, not short crude; roots are at the high end but tolerable.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A more transmissible, higher-fatality clade I mpox lineage outpaces vaccine supply, triggering renewed PHEIC, stockpile exhaustion, and overwhelmed clinics across Europe and North America. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Pandemic shock ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -3.2% hist -10.67–+0.13% · other way +3.31% (n=12) |
| 2 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.5% hist +0.34–+2.46% · other way +0.97% (n=12) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -6.03–-0.08% · other way -0.51% (n=12) |
| 4 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.9% hist -0.54–+1.45% · other way +0.75% (n=12) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -4.56–+0.44% · other way +0.14% (n=12) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% hist -8.58–+1.68% · other way +0.81% (n=12) |
| 7 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -4.95–+0.23% · other way +0.3% (n=12) |
| 8 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.6% hist -1.66–+1.64% · other way +0.7% (n=12) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -7.37–+1.33% · other way +1.74% (n=12) |
| 11 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.8% hist -5.01–+11.34% · other way +0.36% (n=12) |
| 12 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.61–-0.05% · other way +12.12% (n=12) |
| 13 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -9bp hist -8.73–-1.73% · other way +7.4% (n=12) |
| 14 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.99–-0.01% · other way +0.72% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the measured history on UAL/DAL: -14% across a clean COVID pandemic sample refutes the cascade's 'LONG/up'; NVDA/AMD/MRVL 'up' is 2020 rebound plus AI-capex, off-channel for an mpox surge.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -2.0% | 79% | 40 | 0.56 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -7.6% · 5d -3.1% | 79% | 40 | 0.50 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -2.1% | 74% | 40 | 0.48 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -1.9% | 68% | 40 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.1% | 68% | 40 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.0% · 5d -4.3% | 69% | 39 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -7.0% · 5d -6.4% | 67% | 36 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -2.0% | 64% | 40 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 64% | 40 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.2% | 64% | 40 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -1.6% | 66% | 40 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XHB XHB | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -0.4% | 62% | 40 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d -5.4% | 64% | 22 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
Deadlier clade-I mpox overwhelming West possible but vaccine stockpiles and surveillance blunt it. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.