What if a core DNS and CDN provider goes down for days?
A multi-day DNS/CDN collapse is an operational-resilience scare hitting availability, not earnings — broad tech and crypto beta wobble then recover once service is restored. The clean analogue is the June-2021 Fastly outage (and Oct-2021 Facebook BGP blackout): large sites dark for hours, stocks barely scratched. Skeptical: infrastructure single-points-of-failure generate fear, not lasting repricing; the only durable trade is marginal multi-CDN redundancy spend.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A core DNS and CDN provider suffers a cascading failure, knocking thousands of major sites offline for days. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.