What if investors abruptly discount corporate net-zero pledges revealed as non-credible?
Investors abruptly discount unrealistic corporate net-zero pledges, repricing firms whose transition plans are revealed as under-funded or non-credible.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Investors abruptly discount unrealistic corporate net-zero pledges, repricing firms whose transition plans are revealed as under-funded or non-credible. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.09–+3.15% · other way -6.09% (n=11) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.48–+0.66% · other way +27.34% (n=11) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -3.78–+1.66% · other way -3.19% (n=9) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.43–+0.51% · other way +0.29% (n=11) |
| 5 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.13–+0.32% · other way -4.35% (n=11) |
| 6 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.59–+-0.0% · other way -0.33% (n=11) |
| 7 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.31–+0.46% · other way -2.96% (n=11) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.07–+0.75% · other way +4.1% (n=9) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.77–+1.1% · other way +6.08% (n=9) |
| 11 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.45–+0.4% · other way -0.05% (n=11) |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.54–+1.44% · other way +2.85% (n=11) |
| 13 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.4–+0.57% · other way +0.38% (n=11) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.11–+0.38% · other way -1.07% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -7.8% | 73% | 11 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.4% | 64% | 40 | 0.24 | · |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 64% | 39 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -4.2% | 62% | 16 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.7% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 60% | 33 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.1% | 60% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 59% | 40 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -1.2% | 57% | 39 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.3% | 56% | 39 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 56% | 39 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 55% | 39 | 0.10 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -2.5% | 56% | 39 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.2% | 54% | 39 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.5% | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |