What if Indonesian nickel oversupply crashes prices before a short-covering surge whipsaws them higher?
Indonesian oversupply crashes nickel, then a forced curtailment and short-covering whipsaws it higher, generating extreme volatility that stresses miners and the metal exchange, a boom-bust nickel scenario.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Indonesian oversupply crashes nickel, then a forced curtailment and short-covering whipsaws it higher, generating extreme volatility that stresses miners and the metal exchange, a boom-bust nickel scenario. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk-parity deleveraging ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.25–-0.09% · other way +1.86% (n=12) |
| 2 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.58–+0.05% · other way +1.31% (n=10) |
| 3 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -3.42–+1.03% · other way +8.2% (n=12) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.21–+0.47% · other way +1.74% (n=12) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.39–+0.54% · other way +1.94% (n=12) |
| 6 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.23–+0.0% · other way -1.49% (n=12) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.25–+1.34% · other way +21.7% (n=12) |
| 8 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -3.75–+2.08% · other way +4.7% (n=12) |
| 9 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -5.43–+3.1% · other way +3.3% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -1.6% | 65% | 34 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -2.4% | 64% | 14 | 0.24 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 32 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -3.3% | 62% | 34 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +6.1% · 5d +5.7% | 58% | 36 | 0.15 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -4bp · 5d -2bp | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d -3bp | 53% | 40 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.0% | 53% | 34 | 0.06 | · |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 53% | 34 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.8% | 53% | 34 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.3% | 52% | 40 | 0.03 | · |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -1.5% | 41% | 37 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.2% | 47% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |