What if unrest collapses Nigerian and Libyan oil output at once?
Simultaneous Nigerian and Libyan outages remove light-sweet barrels, lifting Brent and products with energy majors and breakevens firming. Rhymes with repeated Libyan civil-war shut-ins (2011, 2020 blockade) and Niger Delta militancy (2016) that each pulled 1m+ b/d offline. Forward angle: these are sweet grades that European refiners prize, so the Brent-Dubai spread and specific refiner margins move more than flat crude — and OPEC+ spare capacity can offset, capping the rally.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Civil unrest collapses Nigerian and Libyan oil output simultaneously. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.