What if Nigeria's naira breaks past 1,800 to the dollar?
Naira past 1,800 on renewed dollar shortage hammers local OMO/FGN holders and re-accelerates CPI — short NGN, fade local-currency carry, watch the parallel-market gap. The direct rhyme is the 2023-24 post-unification slides that ran the naira from ~460 to >1,600 with inflation above 30%. Nigeria's FX is oil-revenue and remittance dependent; a fresh squeeze signals reserve/oil-receipt stress. The US-rates lines (real yields, Fed path) in the cascade are noise — this is a frontier local-debt and FX event.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Renewed dollar shortages push the official naira past 1,800/USD, hammering local-currency OMO and FGN bond holders. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — FX carry appetite ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · EM currencies ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.