What if Nigeria's naira breaks past 1,800 to the dollar?
Naira past 1,800 on renewed dollar shortage hammers local OMO/FGN holders and re-accelerates CPI — short NGN, fade local-currency carry, watch the parallel-market gap. The direct rhyme is the 2023-24 post-unification slides that ran the naira from ~460 to >1,600 with inflation above 30%. Nigeria's FX is oil-revenue and remittance dependent; a fresh squeeze signals reserve/oil-receipt stress. The US-rates lines (real yields, Fed path) in the cascade are noise — this is a frontier local-debt and FX event.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Renewed dollar shortages push the official naira past 1,800/USD, hammering local-currency OMO and FGN bond holders. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — FX carry appetite ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · EM currencies ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.9% hist -4.5–+1.27% · other way +0.27% (n=12) |
| 2 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.21–+0.08% · other way -0.35% (n=12) |
| 3 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.92–+0.09% · other way -0.33% (n=12) |
| 4 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.43–-0.04% · other way +0.04% (n=12) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -4.93–+1.27% · other way +13.43% (n=12) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.85–+0.16% · other way +0.45% (n=12) |
| 7 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.25–+0.12% · other way -0.65% (n=12) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.15–+0.65% · other way -11.43% (n=12) |
| 9 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.28–+0.2% · other way -1.77% (n=12) |
| 10 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.22–+0.09% · other way -0.86% (n=12) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -6.47–+1.73% · other way +5.05% (n=11) |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.15–-0.06% · other way +0.69% (n=12) |
| 13 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -0.47–+1.68% · other way -6.7% (n=12) |
| 14 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -0.6–+1.64% · other way -7.2% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the measured history SHORT DGS10: twelve on-channel EM-devaluation windows hit 73% with 10y yields dropping sharply on safe-haven flows — the cascade's LONG over-reaches; a naira break bids Treasuries.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.3% | 68% | 37 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.3% | 64% | 37 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.7% · 5d -5.1% | 65% | 25 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -2.8% | 64% | 38 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.5% · 5d -8.7% | 64% | 16 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 61% | 37 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.1% | 59% | 39 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -0.1% | 57% | 37 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d +-0.0% | 57% | 37 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -1bp · 5d -1bp | 56% | 39 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.4% | 56% | 40 | 0.10 | · |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.8% | 55% | 38 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -2bp · 5d -2bp | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 53% | 38 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
Naira chronically weak with recurring dollar shortages; breaking 1800 plausible but FX reforms have stabilized somewhat. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.