What if Nigeria's naira re-floats as the official-parallel gap reopens?
Dollar scarcity forces Nigeria into another naira adjustment, widening the FX gap and pressuring reserves until oil receipts or portfolio inflows return.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Dollar scarcity forces Nigeria into another naira adjustment, widening the FX gap and pressuring reserves until oil receipts or portfolio inflows return. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.8% hist -2.97–+1.76% · other way +31.52% (n=12) |
| 2 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.6% hist -7.15–+1.48% · other way +7.89% (n=11) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.4% hist -2.85–+0.57% · other way -5.05% (n=11) |
| 4 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.96–-0.23% · other way -0.75% (n=12) |
| 5 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.83–+0.09% · other way +0.48% (n=12) |
| 6 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.08–-0.18% · other way -0.66% (n=12) |
| 7 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.2% hist -3.69–+0.96% · other way -3.03% (n=12) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -3.55–+9.5% · other way +24.04% (n=11) |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -5.95–+1.31% · other way +5.06% (n=11) |
| 11 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.9% hist -4.23–+1.2% · other way -2.43% (n=12) |
| 12 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.03–+1.01% · other way +1.06% (n=12) |
| 13 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.95–+0.03% · other way -0.58% (n=12) |
| 14 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.42–+0.79% · other way -1.28% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +9.1% · 5d +4.8% | 75% | 15 | 0.42 | ⚠ differs |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -1.6% | 72% | 37 | 0.38 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -1.9% | 69% | 37 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.1% | 69% | 37 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +3.5% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 63% | 37 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.0% | 64% | 37 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.8% · 5d -4.2% | 63% | 24 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.9% · 5d -3.6% | 65% | 20 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.2% | 61% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.5% | 60% | 37 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 37 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.0% | 59% | 40 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 58% | 37 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 59% | 37 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |