What if a sharp oil price drop weakens the Norwegian krone and complicates Norges Bank policy?
A sharp oil-price drop weakens the petro-sensitive Norwegian krone, importing inflation and complicating Norges Bank policy in a recognized commodity-currency channel.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A sharp oil-price drop weakens the petro-sensitive Norwegian krone, importing inflation and complicating Norges Bank policy in a recognized commodity-currency channel. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.32–-0.14% · other way -3.53% (n=10) |
| 2 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.33–+0.22% · other way -0.51% (n=10) |
| 3 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.16–-0.05% · other way -0.84% (n=10) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.07–+4.65% · other way -4.63% (n=10) |
| 5 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -3.17–+12.5% · other way +21.8% (n=12) |
| 6 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.43–+0.66% · other way -1.23% (n=10) |
| 7 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -1.45–+4.91% · other way +21.6% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 25 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -5.5% · 5d -4.2% | 70% | 17 | 0.30 | · |
| INR INR | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.5% | 64% | 15 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +11bp · 5d +6bp | 62% | 22 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.2% | 61% | 16 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +10.4% · 5d +0.1% | 59% | 9 | 0.15 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.1% | 55% | 25 | 0.09 | · |
| CL CL | LONG | +4.9% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 53% | 16 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +1.6% ↺ fades | 36% | 15 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 50% | 16 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +4bp | 36% | 25 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 38% | 14 | 0.00 | · |