What if Norway starts drawing down its sovereign wealth fund?
Norway's NBIM beginning structural drawdowns turns the world's largest sovereign fund from a price-insensitive buyer into a net seller — a slow, persistent supply overhang on global equities and bonds rather than a shock. No clean crisis analogue exists; it is closer to a structural flow regime-change than any single event. The transmission is global index-level selling pressure across DM equities; the forward, novel angle is that this reverses a decade-plus of one-way inflows — the marginal-buyer withdrawal is a multi-year valuation headwind, so the modeled one-day moves understate the cumulative drag.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Oslo begins structural drawdowns of its sovereign wealth fund, forcing global equity and bond sales. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Financial conditions ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.