What if nurses strike over the rollout of care robots?
A national nurses' strike over care-robots/AI-triage disrupts hospitals and stalls health-system automation — a wage-pressure/services-cost event that lifts inflation expectations more than it dents equities. Rhymes with the 2023 NYC and 2022 Minnesota nurse strikes that won staffing protections and raised labor costs. Skeptic's note: the signal is in breakevens and hospital-cost proxies; the crypto/Nasdaq risk-on legs are noise on a healthcare labor dispute.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A national nurses' union strikes over care-robot and AI-triage deployment, disrupting hospitals and halting health-system automation. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Job displacement ▼ · Labor shortage ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.