What if Odesa-port reopening floods the wheat market?
Full Odesa and Pivdennyi throughput returns to pre-war tonnage, adding a structural supply wave that drives Chicago wheat and Matif milling wheat sharply lower.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Full Odesa and Pivdennyi throughput returns to pre-war tonnage, adding a structural supply wave that drives Chicago wheat and Matif milling wheat sharply lower. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Corn ▼ · Wheat ▼ · Food inflation ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -5.92–+2.7% · other way -1.54% (n=12) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.89–+0.5% · other way -1.22% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 10 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -5.5% · 5d -0.4% | 78% | 9 | 0.51 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -5.6% · 5d -5.4% | 80% | 10 | 0.37 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.5% · 5d -1.8% | 71% | 7 | 0.34 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +2.4% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 67% | 9 | 0.30 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 71% | 7 | 0.27 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.1% | 60% | 10 | 0.17 | · |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.9% | 44% | 9 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +4bp | 50% | 10 | 0.00 | · |