What if Oil-import spike widens Bangladesh's external deficit?
A Brent spike inflates Bangladesh's fuel-import bill, widening the trade and current-account gaps and draining reserves; the taka weakens and energy-subsidy costs strain the budget.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A Brent spike inflates Bangladesh's fuel-import bill, widening the trade and current-account gaps and draining reserves; the taka weakens and energy-subsidy costs strain the budget. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.0% hist -0.66–+2.0% · other way -3.03% (n=12) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.7% hist -3.34–+3.27% · other way +31.53% (n=12) |
| 3 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.4% hist -4.87–+1.64% · other way -2.56% (n=12) |
| 4 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.07–-0.43% · other way -0.22% (n=12) |
| 5 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.5% hist -6.58–+1.5% · other way +7.71% (n=12) |
| 6 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.7% hist -0.21–+1.05% · other way -1.36% (n=12) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.86–+1.05% · other way -3.0% (n=12) |
| 8 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.89–+0.18% · other way -0.49% (n=12) |
| 9 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -2.1–+2.2% · other way +8.11% (n=12) |
| 10 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist +0.1–+1.52% · other way -2.15% (n=12) |
| 11 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -5.54–+12.02% · other way +22.72% (n=12) |
| 12 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 13 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.27–+0.93% · other way +0.18% (n=12) |
| 14 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.17–+1.14% · other way +4.5% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +12.0% · 5d +3.5% | 77% | 12 | 0.47 | ⚠ differs |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +8.2% · 5d +0.3% | 77% | 12 | 0.46 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -4.9% · 5d -2.6% | 70% | 25 | 0.36 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 69% | 25 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.9% | 70% | 33 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.6% · 5d +4.5% | 66% | 29 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.6% · 5d +0.2% | 66% | 27 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d -3.9% | 65% | 17 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -5.2% ↺ fades | 65% | 12 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 22 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.3% · 5d -4.8% | 61% | 20 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.2% | 59% | 26 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 60% | 23 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.3% | 60% | 23 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |