What if Oil-price spike batters commodity-importer EM currencies?
A supply-shock jump in oil widens importer-EM trade deficits and inflation, draining reserves and forcing currency depreciation across energy-dependent economies.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A supply-shock jump in oil widens importer-EM trade deficits and inflation, draining reserves and forcing currency depreciation across energy-dependent economies. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.0% hist -2.1–+1.33% · other way -4.58% (n=12) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.5% hist -2.8–+1.56% · other way -4.09% (n=12) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.8% hist -0.75–+1.13% · other way -1.79% (n=12) |
| 4 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.86–+2.34% · other way +11.69% (n=12) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist +0.24–+0.71% · other way -2.53% (n=12) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.39–+1.32% · other way +32.01% (n=12) |
| 7 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.12–+0.83% · other way -0.38% (n=12) |
| 8 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.02–+1.62% · other way +7.24% (n=12) |
| 9 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.28–+0.07% · other way -0.83% (n=12) |
| 10 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.5–-0.3% · other way -0.01% (n=12) |
| 11 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.68–+0.38% · other way -2.33% (n=11) |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.61–+0.15% · other way +0.16% (n=12) |
| 13 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.67–-0.11% · other way -0.55% (n=12) |
| 14 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +9.5% · 5d +4.6% | 74% | 18 | 0.41 | ⚠ differs |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -1.8% | 70% | 35 | 0.34 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.1% | 66% | 35 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -2.5% | 68% | 35 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +4.2% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 63% | 18 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 64% | 35 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 62% | 35 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.5% | 61% | 35 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -4.4% | 62% | 28 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d -3.5% | 63% | 24 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.2% | 58% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d -7.0% | 62% | 7 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.2% | 57% | 40 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 35 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |