What if On-site-power bypass trend de-rates regulated grid utilities?
Evidence that large loads increasingly self-supply behind the meter casts doubt on utility load-growth forecasts, de-rating regulated names in XLU as investors mark down rate-base growth.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Evidence that large loads increasingly self-supply behind the meter casts doubt on utility load-growth forecasts, de-rating regulated names in XLU as investors mark down rate-base growth. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.97–+0.34% · other way +0.76% (n=4) |
| 2 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.61–+2.16% · other way +12.55% (n=4) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.61–+0.01% · other way +17.78% (n=10) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.28–+0.44% · other way +3.1% (n=10) |
| 6 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.32–+6.34% · other way -10.78% (n=10) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.7–+0.74% · other way +17.98% (n=4) |
| 8 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.84–+0.47% · other way +11.77% (n=10) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.31–+0.35% · other way +3.16% (n=10) |
| 10 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.0–+0.59% · other way -0.85% (n=10) |
| 11 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.64–+0.11% · other way +2.49% (n=8) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.08–-0.01% · other way +0.29% (n=12) |
| 13 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.18–+1.14% · other way +43.06% (n=3) |
| 14 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.38–+0.86% · other way +0.8% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -2.4% | 71% | 17 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.0% | 65% | 37 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -0.8% | 62% | 40 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.0% · 5d +0.1% | 62% | 40 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.8% · 5d +1.1% | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.0% | 55% | 40 | 0.10 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.0% | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -3.8% | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NG NG | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -3.0% | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -9.7% ↺ fades | 43% | 14 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -3.9% | 50% | 14 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |