What if Palm-oil price spike on El Nino drought lifts Malaysia terms?
An El Nino-driven yield shortfall and Indonesian export curbs squeeze global edible-oil supply, lifting CPO prices and Malaysian plantation revenue; food-inflation and the ringgit firm on improved terms of trade.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. An El Nino-driven yield shortfall and Indonesian export curbs squeeze global edible-oil supply, lifting CPO prices and Malaysian plantation revenue; food-inflation and the ringgit firm on improved terms of trade. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.74–+1.47% · other way -1.95% (n=11) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.79–+1.82% · other way +0.55% (n=11) |
| 3 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.25–+2.37% · other way -0.35% (n=11) |
| 4 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.35–+0.49% · other way +0.01% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 17 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.5% | 70% | 10 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | LONG | +2.2% · 5d +3.6% | 70% | 10 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -2.7% | 64% | 11 | 0.19 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +10bp · 5d +4bp | 60% | 17 | 0.19 | · |
| CORN CORN | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -2.0% | 60% | 10 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 60% | 10 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 60% | 10 | 0.18 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 49% | 17 | 0.00 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +10.5% · 5d +0.3% | 50% | 6 | 0.00 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 50% | 10 | 0.00 | · |