What if drought lowers Panama Canal water levels, cutting daily transits?
Drought lowers Panama Canal water levels, cutting daily transits and lengthening global supply chains, the climate-chokepoint shipping disruption the IMF and shippers flag.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Drought lowers Panama Canal water levels, cutting daily transits and lengthening global supply chains, the climate-chokepoint shipping disruption the IMF and shippers flag. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Inflation surprise ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.87–+0.51% · other way +0.75% (n=12) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -2.55–+1.4% · other way +3.13% (n=12) |
| 3 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.1–+0.79% · other way +5.04% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.3–+0.49% · other way +0.66% (n=12) |
| 5 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -3.18–+0.67% · other way +7.92% (n=12) |
| 6 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -2.34–+6.53% · other way +3.3% (n=12) |
| 7 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -0.01–+0.85% · other way +2.3% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NG NG | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -4.2% | 69% | 33 | 0.36 | ⚠ differs |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.5% | 64% | 33 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -2.3% | 64% | 33 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.5% · 5d +0.8% | 61% | 33 | 0.19 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 58% | 33 | 0.14 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | 0bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 56% | 40 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| CORN CORN | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -2.2% | 56% | 33 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 56% | 33 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 54% | 40 | 0.07 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +3.3% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 53% | 32 | 0.05 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +2bp | 48% | 38 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.2% | 50% | 33 | 0.00 | · |