What if drought shuts down transits through the Panama Canal?
Panama transit collapse is a shipping-rate and rerouting event: draft restrictions push Asia-US East Coast boxes to longer Suez/Cape or rail routes, lifting container rates and transit times. Rhymes with the 2023-24 Gatun drought that slashed daily slots and spiked auction premiums. Transmission hits US importers' landed costs and LNG/LPG arb (Gulf-to-Asia); the modeled copper/crypto leg is too small to trade — the real expression is freight rates and timing, not metals.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Severe drought drops Gatun Lake below operating levels, slashing canal transits and rerouting global container shipping. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Financial conditions ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.