What if Panama Canal drought disrupts LatAm Pacific-Atlantic trade?
A drought-driven cut in Panama Canal transits raises shipping costs and reroutes Latin American trade, denting export competitiveness and sentiment.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A drought-driven cut in Panama Canal transits raises shipping costs and reroutes Latin American trade, denting export competitiveness and sentiment. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Global growth ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -4.65–+4.13% · other way -3.07% (n=10) |
| 2 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.23–+0.35% · other way -3.11% (n=11) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.58–+0.36% · other way -0.63% (n=11) |
| 5 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.35–+3.3% · other way -2.77% (n=11) |
| 6 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.99–+0.39% · other way -0.44% (n=11) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.92–+1.0% · other way +30.63% (n=11) |
| 8 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.61–+0.95% · other way +2.87% (n=11) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -8.1–+8.1% · other way +5.06% (n=10) |
| 10 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.49–+0.79% · other way -0.38% (n=11) |
| 11 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.65–+0.87% · other way +5.24% (n=11) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -5.56–+6.43% · other way +6.9% (n=10) |
| 13 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.53–+0.9% · other way -0.31% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 23 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.6% · 5d +4.2% | 65% | 17 | 0.25 | · |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -3.4% | 62% | 16 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +3.0% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 62% | 16 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 16 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 62% | 16 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 59% | 18 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 16 | 0.12 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 56% | 16 | 0.12 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +7.1% · 5d +0.3% | 56% | 9 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -4bp · 5d -1bp | 55% | 23 | 0.10 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 56% | 16 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +4.7% · 5d -3.5% ↺ fades | 40% | 5 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +1.1% | 50% | 16 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 31% | 16 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |