What if Panama Canal rains restore full transits, freight eases?
A return to normal rainfall refills Gatún Lake and lifts Panama Canal draft restrictions, normalizing transits and easing shipping-cost and goods-inflation pressure.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A return to normal rainfall refills Gatún Lake and lifts Panama Canal draft restrictions, normalizing transits and easing shipping-cost and goods-inflation pressure. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▼ · Inflation surprise ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ · Trade tension ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.12–+0.45% · other way +0.28% (n=12) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.12–+1.4% · other way -2.39% (n=11) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -4.85–+1.9% · other way +3.6% (n=10) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.03–+0.41% · other way +0.22% (n=11) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -4.35–+13.35% · other way +1.89% (n=11) |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.82–+2.21% · other way +4.58% (n=11) |
| 8 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.12–+0.9% · other way -4.54% (n=11) |
| 9 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.29–+1.15% · other way +0.69% (n=11) |
| 10 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.29–+0.42% · other way +1.45% (n=11) |
| 11 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.03–+0.3% · other way -3.42% (n=12) |
| 12 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.37–+1.42% · other way -0.05% (n=11) |
| 13 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.06–+0.67% · other way -9.0% (n=12) |
| 14 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.52–+2.0% · other way -2.77% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.3% | 71% | 38 | 0.41 | ⚠ differs |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -1.2% | 68% | 36 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 62% | 38 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.1% | 64% | 39 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +12.0% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 38 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.5% | 60% | 38 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -1.9% | 62% | 38 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -6.6% | 62% | 35 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.7% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 60% | 38 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -3.0% | 58% | 38 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -1.8% ↺ fades | 56% | 37 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 38 | 0.11 | · |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.0% | 56% | 38 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -2.4% ↺ fades | 55% | 39 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |