What if a deep payrolls revision reveals a hidden recession?
A deep negative payrolls revision flips the labor narrative recessionary; the front end rallies (2y yields lower) as the market pulls forward cuts, and the dollar softens on narrower rate differentials. Rhymes with the Aug-2024 BLS benchmark revision (-818k) that briefly steepened the curve and pressured the USD. The cascade's 'hawkish' bracket labels are mislabeled relative to the dovish sign, but the directional roots (growth down, Fed less hawkish) are sound.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A huge negative nonfarm-payrolls revision flips the labor-market narrative to recession. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Growth surprise ▼ · Fed policy path ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.