What if the PBOC slashes reserve requirements in an emergency easing?
An emergency 100bp RRR cut is capitulation to deflation that floods liquidity and nudges the renminbi weaker; the muted cascade is right — RRR cuts are liquidity plumbing, not demand, so copper and China internet get only a reflexive bid that fades absent fiscal follow-through. Rhymes with the September 2024 stimulus pop that ripped then stalled without budget support. Forward: without a fiscal bazooka, fade the metals rally; the yuan does the adjusting.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. An emergency 100bps reserve-requirement cut signals capitulation to deflation, flooding the system with liquidity and weakening the renminbi. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · China stimulus ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.