What if China's central bank unleashes a stimulus bazooka?
Reflation impulse: a PBOC RRR+rate+fiscal bazooka bids the China-demand complex — copper (China ~55% of demand), China internet/BABA, and AUD as the liquid proxy. The rhyme is the Sep-2024 'bazooka', which ripped Chinese equities and copper for weeks before fiscal follow-through disappointed and it faded. Transmission: Australia and commodity exporters are the cleanest beneficiaries; forward angle — the repeated lesson is that monetary easing without sustained fiscal transfers fades, so trade the announcement pop in copper/CN equities but demand fiscal confirmation before holding it.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. The PBOC unleashes a large RRR + rate-cut + fiscal stimulus package. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China stimulus ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.