What if China's central bank unleashes a stimulus bazooka?
Reflation impulse: a PBOC RRR+rate+fiscal bazooka bids the China-demand complex — copper (China ~55% of demand), China internet/BABA, and AUD as the liquid proxy. The rhyme is the Sep-2024 'bazooka', which ripped Chinese equities and copper for weeks before fiscal follow-through disappointed and it faded. Transmission: Australia and commodity exporters are the cleanest beneficiaries; forward angle — the repeated lesson is that monetary easing without sustained fiscal transfers fades, so trade the announcement pop in copper/CN equities but demand fiscal confirmation before holding it.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. The PBOC unleashes a large RRR + rate-cut + fiscal stimulus package. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China stimulus ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist +0.26–+0.81% |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.0% hist +0.22–+0.62% |
| 3 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -1.82–+1.02% |
| 4 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.2–+0.47% |
| 5 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.06–+0.42% |
| 6 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.03–+0.29% |
| 7 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.11–+0.57% |
| 8 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.61–+0.41% |
| 9 | KOSPI 200 KR200on Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.53–+0.18% |
| 10 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.05–+0.18% |
| 11 | Platinum XPTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.5–+0.31% |
| 12 | Palladium XPDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -3.86–+0.97% |
| 13 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.19–+0.55% |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade long on CL: history's -6% is built entirely from April-2025 tariff/rare-earth demand-destruction windows — the opposite shock to PBOC stimulus reflating Chinese oil demand; regime-biased sample.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XPD XPD | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -2.1% | 68% | 40 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| KR200 KR200 | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.1% | 70% | 40 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 65% | 40 | 0.21 | · |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -0.8% | 60% | 40 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.3% | 60% | 40 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +10bp · 5d +2bp | 60% | 40 | 0.17 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -2.0% | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | · |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.0% | 57% | 40 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.15 | · |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -1.4% | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.3% | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.7% | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -5.8% | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | · |
Why this probability
PBOC incremental stimulus near-continuous; a sizable package over 18mo is base case. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.