What if El Nino collapses Peru's anchovy catch?
An El Nino anchovy crash is a fishmeal/feed shock — trade it long soymeal as the substitute and through aquaculture-feed cost, not generic wheat. Rhymes with 2023, when Peru cancelled its first anchovy season and fishmeal prices spiked, feeding salmon and hog rations worldwide. Peru is the dominant fishmeal exporter, so transmission runs to Norwegian salmon and Asian aquaculture margins; the wheat/corn proxy understates soymeal and overstates milling grains.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A strong El Nino crashes Peru's anchovy biomass, halting fishmeal exports and roiling global aquaculture feed. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.