What if a demand shock and trade-finance freeze leave commodity cargoes stranded?
A demand shock and trade-finance freeze leave cargoes stranded and unfinanced (a 2020-style episode), forcing distressed sales and impairing trader and lender balance sheets, an FSB liquidity scenario.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A demand shock and trade-finance freeze leave cargoes stranded and unfinanced (a 2020-style episode), forcing distressed sales and impairing trader and lender balance sheets, an FSB liquidity scenario. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -4.66–+0.96% · other way +21.34% (n=10) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% hist -5.05–+2.22% · other way -7.78% (n=4) |
| 3 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -5.24–+2.23% · other way +11.22% (n=4) |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -7.57–+4.28% · other way +5.55% (n=4) |
| 5 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.97–-0.05% · other way +1.37% (n=8) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.8% hist -2.68–+9.49% · other way -9.6% (n=10) |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.68–-0.16% · other way +3.11% (n=10) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.59–-0.08% · other way +0.65% (n=12) |
| 10 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.04–+0.13% · other way -1.92% (n=10) |
| 11 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -4.84–+3.75% · other way +30.76% (n=3) |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.5–+0.4% · other way +3.33% (n=10) |
| 13 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -4.55–+0.78% · other way +11.6% (n=10) |
| 14 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.4–+0.18% · other way +0.13% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -1.2% | 71% | 11 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -1.5% | 69% | 30 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -7.6% | 73% | 8 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -1.3% | 68% | 30 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.8% | 68% | 36 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.2% · 5d -3.2% | 73% | 8 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 67% | 28 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.7% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 63% | 30 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +8.3% · 5d +2.1% | 62% | 32 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.1% | 59% | 30 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -3.5% | 59% | 30 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.3% | 56% | 30 | 0.11 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -10bp · 5d -5bp | 56% | 40 | 0.11 | · |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.7% | 56% | 36 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |