What if Post-war European energy-cost gap closes vs the US?
Cheaper post-settlement gas narrows the European-US industrial energy-cost gap, reviving competitiveness and supporting a structural re-rating of European industrials.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Cheaper post-settlement gas narrows the European-US industrial energy-cost gap, reviving competitiveness and supporting a structural re-rating of European industrials. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▼ · Growth surprise ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.54–+1.84% · other way +1.29% (n=7) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -2.55–+5.75% · other way +4.78% (n=12) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.17–+0.93% · other way -0.14% (n=7) |
| 5 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.71–+2.2% · other way +3.29% (n=12) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.1–+0.23% · other way +0.54% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.09–+0.59% · other way +7.68% (n=9) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.34–+0.43% · other way +1.04% (n=12) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.06–+0.18% · other way +0.62% (n=12) |
| 10 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.75–+1.97% · other way -3.49% (n=12) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.23–+1.05% · other way +1.13% (n=12) |
| 12 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.27–+17.13% · other way +5.5% (n=5) |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.27–+1.0% · other way -0.74% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +13.9% · 5d +2.7% | 73% | 24 | 0.44 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 73% | 31 | 0.32 | · |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.1% | 65% | 40 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +15bp · 5d +8bp | 63% | 40 | 0.22 | · |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 60% | 34 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 56% | 40 | 0.11 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -2.2% ↺ fades | 56% | 36 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 54% | 34 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 54% | 34 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.7% | 54% | 34 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 54% | 36 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -4.8% ↺ fades | 50% | 26 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +5.4% · 5d -2.7% ↺ fades | 40% | 34 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -2.2% ↺ fades | 50% | 26 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |