What if Power-name momentum unwind hits IPPs and equipment together?
A crowded power-and-electrification trade reverses sharply as growth doubts and rate moves trigger a momentum unwind, dragging Vistra, Constellation, GEV and copper proxies down in tandem.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A crowded power-and-electrification trade reverses sharply as growth doubts and rate moves trigger a momentum unwind, dragging Vistra, Constellation, GEV and copper proxies down in tandem. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ · Risk-parity deleveraging ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.57–+0.26% · other way +1.81% (n=11) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.28–+1.36% · other way -8.23% (n=8) |
| 3 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.05–+0.77% · other way -6.78% (n=11) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.88–+0.48% · other way +17.3% (n=11) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -6.35–+3.33% · other way +4.03% (n=8) |
| 7 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.47–+0.29% · other way +2.57% (n=11) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.77–+0.66% · other way +8.61% (n=8) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.59–+0.05% · other way +1.0% (n=12) |
| 10 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.36–+0.61% · other way +2.75% (n=11) |
| 11 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.44–+0.51% · other way +8.32% (n=11) |
| 12 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.29–-0.05% · other way +21.95% (n=7) |
| 13 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.44–+0.68% · other way +10.49% (n=11) |
| 14 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.22–+-0.0% · other way +1.91% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 29 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.1% · 5d -5.8% | 67% | 12 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 60% | 20 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +5.8% | 58% | 23 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.3% | 59% | 22 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +-0.0% | 57% | 7 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.1% | 59% | 22 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 57% | 22 | 0.12 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -3.4% ↺ fades | 55% | 15 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d +0.5% ↺ fades | 56% | 25 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 54% | 24 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.0% | 54% | 22 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.6% | 52% | 29 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 52% | 22 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d +1.9% ↺ fades | 52% | 24 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |