What if Power-price volatility lifts XLE-vs-XLU relative-value dispersion?
Swings in gas and power prices widen the performance gap between fuel-levered XLE names and rate-base-driven XLU utilities, creating a tradable energy-vs-utility dispersion.
19%
our model probability over 6–18 months
prediction markets — wisdom of the crowd
loading live odds…
◎ Empirically anchored 19%· 90% range 6–32%· 40 analogues · measured class vol_spike 67% in 18 mo · 3% held back for the unknownhow we built this number — every step
Measured class rate — vol_spike ≈0.7371/yr → 67% in 18 mo67%
Analyst prior · editorial share 30% of the class20%
Pooled · weight 87%20%
Crowd — no liquid market—
Reserve 3% · no extremizing (×1.0)20%
Published19%
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
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What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Swings in gas and power prices widen the performance gap between fuel-levered XLE names and rate-base-driven XLU utilities, creating a tradable energy-vs-utility dispersion. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
Market
Class
Projected move
1
Natural gasNGon Hyperliquid📈 chart
Commodity
▲ +0.3%
hist -0.76–+0.5% · other way -1.09% (n=11)
2
Volatility (VIX)VIXon Hyperliquid📈 chart
Vol
▲ +0.3%
hist -0.72–+0.55% · other way -7.75% (n=11)
3
Freeport (copper)FCX📈 chart
Equity
▲ +0.2%
hist -0.32–+0.95% · other way +7.89% (n=11)
Probable recommendation
If the scenario above plays out, the probable cross‑asset positioning → a scenario‑conditional read, not personalized investment advice
Cash / hedgeRaise cash and hold the long hedges above; this scenario is net risk-off.
For a common-man portfolio: A typical stock-heavy portfolio is at risk. Consider trimming equities, raising cash, and a small cash hedge.
Also moves (not yet on Hyperliquid): Freeport (copper) +0.2%
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
Niger coup d'etat 2023-07↗North Korea 'fire and fury' nuclear scare 2017-08↗Egyptian revolution / Mubarak uprising 2011-01↗Gold tops $4,000 and silver spikes past $50 in historic squeeze 2025-10↗Israel strikes Iran — Operation Rising Lion 2025-06↗Gold tops $3,000 for the first time amid tariff and rate-cut fears 2025-03↗Henry Hub natural gas hits a 25-year low amid record US production 2024-11↗Waha hub natural gas prices crash to record negative on Permian glut 2024-08↗Gold tops $2,500 for the first time on Fed rate-cut bets 2024-08↗VIX third-highest spike on record 2024-08↗PJM grid emergency during Winter Storm Elliott 2022-12↗Evergrande debt crisis - global selloff 2021-09↗Texas grid failure during Winter Storm Uri 2021-02↗Gold closes above $2,000/oz for the first time 2020-08↗Norilsk Nickel Arctic diesel spill 2020-05↗COVID-19 fourth circuit breaker 2020-03↗COVID-19 second Level-1 circuit breaker 2020-03↗Worst Christmas Eve selloff on record 2018-12↗February 2018 hot wage print triggers rate scare 2018-02↗North Korea sixth nuclear test 2017-09↗China-led global 'Black Monday' rout 2015-08↗Thailand 2014 military coup 2014-05↗Gold futures velocity-logic flash crash 2014-01↗SEC approves Limit Up-Limit Down plan and revised market-wide circuit breakers 2012-05↗Gold all-time peak of $1,921/oz 2011-09↗US-downgrade Black Monday equity rout and VIX spike to 48 2011-08↗VIX record intraday high of 89.53 2008-10↗Henry Hub natural gas spot price peaks during 2008 commodity boom 2008-07↗Platinum hits all-time record near $2,290 on South African power crisis 2008-03↗South Africa Eskom power emergency spikes platinum/PGMs 2008-01↗Shanghai Sneeze global selloff with then-record VIX spike 2007-02↗Amaranth Advisors natural-gas blowup 2006-09↗Northeast blackout cascading grid failure hits ~55 million 2003-08↗Soviet August coup attempt against Gorbachev 1991-08↗Chernobyl disaster 1986-04↗Silver Thursday 1980-03↗Gold peaks at $850 1980-01↗Iran hostage crisis / US freezes Iranian assets 1979-11↗Three Mile Island partial meltdown 1979-03↗1979 Iranian Revolution oil shock 1979-01↗