What if Pre-emptive term-funding auctions defuse a quarter-end squeeze?
The central bank runs large pre-emptive term repo auctions ahead of quarter-end; banks lock in funding, repo and the FX-swap basis stay tame, and the usual turn squeeze never bites.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. The central bank runs large pre-emptive term repo auctions ahead of quarter-end; banks lock in funding, repo and the FX-swap basis stay tame, and the usual turn squeeze never bites. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▼ · Financial conditions ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.