What if property insurers exit five states at once?
Insurers exiting five states collapses coverage and forces a housing-affordability/forced-sale spiral in those markets — the transmission is into regional mortgage credit, RMBS on uninsurable property, and homebuilders, not crypto liquidity. This rhymes with the post-Andrew (1992) Florida insurer exodus and the current California/Florida non-renewal wave, which froze transactions and pushed buyers to state insurers of last resort. Skeptical: a multi-year, geographically contained problem rarely moves HY indices; the BTC/MSTR legs are spurious.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Major insurers withdraw from five states at once, collapsing coverage and triggering a forced-sale spiral in affected housing. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Mortgage rates ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.