What if Quantum breaks today's encryption?
A cryptographically-relevant quantum computer arrives before post-quantum migration completes, threatening the cryptography securing finance and the internet.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A cryptographically-relevant quantum computer arrives before post-quantum migration completes, threatening the cryptography securing finance and the internet. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Crypto confidence ▼ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -5.6% hist -3.46–-1.47% · other way -7.85% (n=12) |
| 2 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -4.8% hist -14.99–+2.5% · other way -6.7% (n=11) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -3.6% hist -13.83–+2.83% · other way -18.56% (n=11) |
| 4 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -3.1% hist -8.08–+1.3% · other way -5.65% (n=11) |
| 5 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -3.01–+1.05% · other way +2.5% (n=11) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.61–+0.77% · other way -2.32% (n=12) |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.52–-0.15% · other way +0.57% (n=12) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.34–+0.06% · other way -0.89% (n=12) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.5–+0.53% · other way +1.07% (n=12) |
| 11 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.39–-0.08% · other way +0.36% (n=12) |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.73–+1.94% · other way +2.32% (n=12) |
| 13 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.61–+0.4% · other way -0.94% (n=12) |
| 14 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.51–+0.32% · other way -0.21% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -11.0% · 5d -13.7% | 83% | 12 | 0.56 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -11.5% · 5d -9.6% | 71% | 17 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -1.2% | 65% | 40 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.0% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 63% | 32 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.9% · 5d +0.0% | 63% | 39 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.2% | 62% | 39 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 61% | 40 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -6.0% · 5d -6.6% | 60% | 20 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.2% | 61% | 40 | 0.18 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d +2.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -4.0% | 60% | 39 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +2.3% · 5d +0.5% | 58% | 12 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -2.1% | 58% | 40 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |