What if RBI front-loads dollar buying to cap rupee appreciation?
Heavy inflows force the RBI to buy dollars and build reserves to prevent excessive rupee strength that would hurt exporters; reserve accumulation accelerates while INR stays range-bound.
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What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Heavy inflows force the RBI to buy dollars and build reserves to prevent excessive rupee strength that would hurt exporters; reserve accumulation accelerates while INR stays range-bound. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.