What if RBI front-loads dollar buying to cap rupee appreciation?
Heavy inflows force the RBI to buy dollars and build reserves to prevent excessive rupee strength that would hurt exporters; reserve accumulation accelerates while INR stays range-bound.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Heavy inflows force the RBI to buy dollars and build reserves to prevent excessive rupee strength that would hurt exporters; reserve accumulation accelerates while INR stays range-bound. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -5.87–+13.25% · other way +13.78% (n=10) |
| 2 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -2.44–+7.04% · other way +0.31% (n=10) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -2.88–+6.52% · other way -4.46% (n=10) |
| 4 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.06–+0.43% · other way +0.02% (n=10) |
| 5 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.17–+0.44% · other way +1.78% (n=10) |
| 6 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.04–+0.27% · other way +0.6% (n=10) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.91–+2.78% · other way -4.27% (n=10) |
| 9 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -4.53–+9.53% · other way +10.14% (n=10) |
| 10 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.3–+0.23% · other way -0.66% (n=10) |
| 11 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.19–-0.09% · other way -0.08% (n=12) |
| 12 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.03–+0.46% · other way +0.03% (n=10) |
| 13 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -1.8–+7.52% · other way +4.5% (n=12) |
| 14 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.1–+0.16% · other way -0.25% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +7bp · 5d +1bp | 67% | 39 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 66% | 38 | 0.23 | · |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.2% | 61% | 38 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 38 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -6.2% | 61% | 38 | 0.16 | · |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 61% | 38 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 38 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +6.3% · 5d -1.8% ↺ fades | 57% | 37 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +2bp | 58% | 38 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.0% | 58% | 38 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 38 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.4% · 5d -3.9% ↺ fades | 56% | 32 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 56% | 39 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.8% | 55% | 38 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |