What if India imposes capital controls to defend the rupee?
RBI capital controls plus heavy intervention to defend the rupee signals reserve drain and stress, not strength: it should bid the dollar and gold and rattle EM-Asia NDFs — the supplied cascade has gold/BTC backwards. Rhymes with the 2013 taper-tantrum rupee defense, when controls and hikes still saw INR slide and Asian peers wobble. India funds a chronic current-account gap via portfolio inflows; controls scare exactly that flow. Forward: a larger FX war-chest cushions versus 2013, but offshore NDF dislocation is the tell.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. India's central bank curbs outflows and intervenes hard to defend the rupee, rattling EM-Asia and offshore NDF markets. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.