What if Reaffirmed Fed independence anchors inflation expectations (good)?
Political restraint and a credible reappointment reaffirm Fed independence, re-anchoring inflation expectations; real yields ease, the dollar firms on credibility, and risk assets rally as the policy premium fades.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Political restraint and a credible reappointment reaffirm Fed independence, re-anchoring inflation expectations; real yields ease, the dollar firms on credibility, and risk assets rally as the policy premium fades. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▼ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.9–-0.43% · other way -3.15% (n=6) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -6.72–+12.56% · other way -1.63% (n=6) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.3–+0.74% · other way +0.29% (n=8) |
| 4 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -8bp hist -5.82–+2.82% · other way +12.7% (n=11) |
| 5 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.76–+5.42% · other way +2.08% (n=5) |
| 6 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -7bp hist -4.51–+6.24% · other way +5.2% (n=12) |
| 7 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.13–+0.4% · other way +0.64% (n=12) |
| 8 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.07–+1.51% · other way -2.7% (n=12) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.14–+0.65% · other way +1.41% (n=6) |
| 10 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -5.24–+9.48% · other way +11.59% (n=3) |
| 11 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.6% hist -3.33–+0.7% · other way -0.07% (n=7) |
| 12 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.39–+0.12% · other way -1.31% (n=6) |
| 13 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.3–+0.26% · other way +0.57% (n=6) |
| 14 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.47–-0.08% · other way -1.87% (n=6) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.6% | 72% | 40 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -3.0% | 68% | 40 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +2bp | 65% | 40 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -5.8% | 65% | 40 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 65% | 40 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +1.7% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.0% | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.2% | 57% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |