What if Reform UK wins the next general election?
A Reform UK government on an anti-immigration, low-tax platform gaps sterling and gilts on fiscal-credibility uncertainty — short GBP and long gilts; the +6.9% VIX / -3.0% Nasdaq overstates global transmission of a UK-domestic event. Rhymes with the 2016 Brexit-vote sterling shock and the 2022 unfunded-tax-cut gilt rout. Transmission: UK fiscal premium hits gilts/GBP first; limited eurozone or US spillover. Forward angle: unfunded tax-cut pledges colliding with bond-market discipline is the 2022 lesson, so the cleanest expression is GBP weakness and a steeper gilt curve, not world equities.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Farage-led party forms government on an anti-immigration, low-tax platform, sterling and gilts gap on uncertainty. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.